Kentucky Derby 137
Churchill Downs - Saturday, May 7, 2011
The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 7, 2011 at Churchill Downs... On this page I will be posting some interesting stats from previous years Kentucky Derby's....
Here is my Kentucky Derby report, unfortunatelly I did not pick the winner for the third year in a row. My top pick Archarcharch lost all chance right from the start just as Dublin did last year, steadied, saddle fell off, and pulled up lame......
For the second year in a row I did not pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby with "Dublin" being my top pick. My second pick, "Super Saver" did win the race and we did hit the $1.00 trifecta, twice ..$2,337.40!!!!
To view a sample of the report that will be e-mailed, you can view my last years Kentucky Derby Selections HERE. The following were my selections for the last 11 years....
2011: Archarcharch----- 15th 2010: Dublin ----- 7th (WON $2,337.40 trifecta) |
I feel very fortunate to have gotten permission to post the following article by Jon White. Jon is one of the guys I have a tremendous amount of respect for. Although I do not know Jon personally, his work is something I have admired for a very long time. Jon currently is the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar, as well as an HRTV and Santa Anita simulcast host. He also writes for XpressBet and is frequently a guest of Steve Byk's "At The Races" radio program on Sirius.....
Enjoy reading about Jon's "Three Strikes" system.....
THIS YEAR’S KENTUCKY DERBY STRIKES - by Jon White (XpressBet)
In 1999, I came up with nine key factors to determine how a Kentucky Derby candidate looks both from a tactical and historical perspective. For each of the nine categories in which a horse doesn’t qualify, the horse gets a strike. (The nine key factors appear at the end of the column.)
Beginning with 1999, here are how many strikes each Kentucky Derby winner has had:
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) category 5
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) category 6
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) categories 2 and 9
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) categories 2 and 5
2006 Barbaro (1 strike) category 6
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2008 Big Brown (1 strike) category 6
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) category 4
While the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner had four strikes (and never won another race), it should be noted the horses to finish second (Pioneerof the Nile), third (Musket Man), fourth (Papa Clem) and fifth (Chocolate Candy) all had zero strikes.
Nine of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners have had either 1 or 0 strikes. Among the 2011 Kentucky Derby candidates with at least 2 strikes are Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Midnight Interlude, Nehro, Uncle Mo and The Factor. I am not picking any of them.
What especially troubles me concerning Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Nehro and Toby’s Corner is they each get a strike in category 3, which is “the eighth pole factor.” This category specifies that in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go; otherwise, the horse gets a strike.
I consider this very important because 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a furlong remaining in the Derby, the two exceptions being Grindstone in 1996 and Giacomo in 2005. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby after being fourth with a furlong to go. Giacomo won the roses after being sixth at the eighth pole.
Giacomo, 50-1 in the wagering, defeated my pick, 71-1 Closing Argument, by a half-length. Closing Argument was my choice because I projected he had a good chance to be first or second with a furlong to run. Closing Argument not only had the lead with a furlong to go, he led through the final furlong until getting overtaken in the closing yards. Closing Argument paid $70 to place, a Kentucky Derby record.
I’m concerned that Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Nehro and Toby’s Corner will not be first or second with a furlong to run in the Kentucky Derby. If that turns out to be the case, their chances to win the roses are slim, though there would be the possibility that they could “pull a Grindstone or a Giacomo.”
But considering Archarcharch, Dialed In and Nehro will not be big prices in the betting, I prefer to take a stand against them with my concern that they will not be first or second with a furlong to go.
So in a year that it’s been said it’s a “kooky Derby,” I am going with Pants On Fire. I project that Pants On Fire has the capability of being first or second with a furlong to run, as was Closing Argument.
I also can picture this headline after the 2011 Kentucky Derby:
Rosie wins the Roses
Earlier this year, Anna “Rosie” Napravnik collaborated with Pants On Fire to win the richest race ever run in New Orleans, the $1 million Louisiana Derby. Napravnik became the first female rider to win the Louisiana Derby since it was inaugurated in 1894. Napravnik also became the first female rider to ever win the Fair Grounds title. She also topped the standings at the 2010 Delaware Park meet.
I happened to be commentating on HRTV when Napravnik won the first race of her career. She won a $7,500 claiming race at Pimlico aboard Ringofdiamonds, the 9-5 favorite, for trainer Richard Small on June 9, 2005.
While Napravnik did win her first race on a favorite, it was the many longshots she was victorious with during the rest of the year that impressed me to such an extent that I became a Rosie Napravnik fan.
For instance, during the first five days of the Laurel fall meet, Napravnik rode six winners. Five of those winners paid double digits -- $77.20, $42.40, $19.80, $18.60 and $14.20.
And now Napravnik will try to become the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Derby. I am not a liar when I say that I am hoping for some of that “Napravnik magic” this year on May 7 with Pants On Fire.
The Kentucky Derby is limited to the 20 horses with the highest graded stakes earnings. With the field still somewhat in flux, what follows are the strikes for the 15 Kentucky Derby candidates with the highest graded stakes earnings through April 16 as listed by Churchill Downs:
Zero Strikes:
Pants On Fire
Soldat
Twice the Appeal
One Strike:
Archarcharch (category 3)
Comma to the Top (category 4)
Mucho Macho Man (category 4)
Two Strikes:
Brilliant Speed (categories 1, 3)
Decisive Moment (categories 2, 4)
Dialed In (categories 3, 6)
Master of Hounds (categories 2, 4)
Toby’s Corner (categories 3, 7)
Three Strikes:
Uncle Mo (categories 1, 4, 6)
Midnight Interlude (categories 1, 6, 8)
Nehro (categories 2, 3, 6)
Four Strikes:
J P’s Gusto (categories 3, 4, 5, 7)
MY NINE KEY KENTUCKY DERBY FACTORS
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Mine That Bird in 2009 have won the Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008 have been the only exceptions. Grindsone, Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE NO ADDING BLINKERS AS A 3-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers in his or her final start at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.)
8. RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is the only Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old. Since 1955, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 46 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or show were Strodes Creek, who finished second in 1994, and Curlin, third in 2007).
9. NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
Historically there are three prep races for the Kentucky Derby that have proven to be very successful for the eventual winner. The Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, and The Florida Derby have produced most winners. The horses that finished either First, Second, or Third have won a total of 57 Kentucky Derby's since 1903... An astounding 53.3% ...!!!!
So, who are the horses who qualify this year? Hypothetically, there is a greater than 50% chance that one of the six horses below will be the next Kentucky Derby Winner.....The four horses that qualify are:
- Dialed In
- Shackleford
- Twinspired
- Brilliant Speed
How important is the Post Position?
Kentucky Derby winners by Post Position since 1903 (108 Races) ...To date, only two post positions have not had a winner - 17 and 19 !!!
Instead of looking at the actual numbers, I wanted to see the percentage of wins by post position.
The following chart depicts the % wins by post position. For example, post position 20 was present 17 times and produced 2 winners (11.8%). As depicted, it turns out that Post Position 20 is the most favorable, followed by Post Position 10, which produced 10 winners from 92 starts.. (10.8%)... Hmmmm, perhaps a 20-10-8-5 super...!!!
Some interesting stuff....
Over the last 20 years of the Kentucky Derby, the:
- Average Win Odds:14.51
- High Win Odds: 50.60 (Mine That Bird, 2009)
- Low Win Odds: 2.30 (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000)
- Average Place Odds:16.36
- High Place Odds: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005)
- Low Place Odds:. 80 (Easy Goer /entry,1989)
- ***: Favorites have been second just 3 times in the past 20 years.
- Average Show Odds:14.88
- High Show Odds: 86.90 (Mane Minister, 1991)
- Low Show Odds: .80 (Awe Inspiring / entry, 1989)
- Average Exacta Payoffs: $926.30
- Highest Exacta Payoff: $9,814.80 (2005)
- Lowest Exacta Payoff: $31.00 (1997)
- Average $2.00 Trifecta Payoff - (Since 1995): $14,685.51
- Highest Trifecta Payoff: $133,134.80 (2005)
- Lowest Trifecta Payoff: $205.40 (1997)
- Average $1.00 Superfecta Payoffs - (Since 1996): $107,239.08
- Highest Superfecta Payoff: $864,253.50 (2005)
- Lowest Superfecta Payoff: $350.00 (1997)
